Gemports' June 2026 release on the Sapphire Transaction Index for Q1 2026 calls it the sharpest single-quarter contraction since the index began in 2019. The house frames a demand-side problem: large-carat unheated goods remained physically available, but transaction velocity weakened under geopolitical and macro stress.
Headline buckets: natural (unheated) Sri Lanka −6.1% QoQ (−17.5% YoY); Africa and Other Sources natural −6.1% QoQ (−29.9% YoY). Heated Sri Lanka −11.8% QoQ (−22.5% YoY); heated Africa and Other −12.0% QoQ (−33.1% YoY). Inside the Sri Lanka natural book, the 5 ct+, 10 ct+ and 20 ct+ tiers print 0.0% QoQ. Gemports says that flatness is sellers holding asks while buyers step back, not a scarcity squeeze. YoY in those large unheated notes remains modestly positive (+2% to +7%).
Commercial heated sub-3 ct material took the harder hit, with Gemports citing renewed inventory liquidation and soft Asian retail demand. One cited print: 1–1.99 ct heated African goods −16.0% QoQ.
For a Ceylon-forward merchant, the practical read is familiar. Unheated fine blues still defend asking prices better than heated commercial. Auction hammers at the top end and wholesale GTI softness in commercial heated can coexist. Our list price is the stone. Landed cost for EU, US or UAE is a separate WhatsApp estimate. Do not treat an index QoQ as a single-stone appraisal.
